CyclePro Outlook

Fundamental and Technical Market Analysis
For All Markets: Stocks, Commodities, Currencies, Cryptocurrencies

Updated At Irregular Intervals


I would rather be prepared and wrong
than to be unprepared but right!

Current Commentary -- Where Are We Now?

Wednesday, August 16, 2017 8PM:

Seasonality: Comparing 2017 VIX to Similar Years

Click chart to enlarge.

While I was tinkering around with various seasonality charts, it struck me as rather curious when I compared the VIX "pattern" for 2017 with the seasonalities of prior years. I ran through each of the years from 1990 through 2016 that had the highest correlation values when compared to the VIX for 2017 (thru mid-August). The years with the best correlations were: 1998, 2001, 2011, and 2015.

The chart above compares VIX for 2017 (orange) with an average of these four best correlation years (blue).

It looks like US Stocks may be headed right into the eye of a hurricane where last weeks excitement was just the initial breeze that often precedes the full gale.

For comparison, the following is my standard VIX Seasonality chart for all years (1990-2016) combined. The autumn stock volatility pattern appears to be ominously consistent.

Click chart to enlarge.

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